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将Bayes理论应用于对武器系统研制单位管理水平的评估.克服了验前评估方法主观性大的缺陷,充分利用收集到的补充信息,对评估结果作了后验预分析,得到了更加可信的评估结论,从而改进了决策过程. 相似文献
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分布式系统设计中的互斥问题 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3
介绍了互斥问题的基本概念,并针对分布式系统设计中的互斥问题分析了非基于令牌和基于令牌的两种解决方案.通过对典型算法的分析,有助于对分布式系统形成可操作的数学模型. 相似文献
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As a complex system with multiple components usually deteriorates with age, preventive maintenance (PM) is often performed to keep the system functioning in a good state to prolong its effective age. In this study, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity is used to describe the deterioration of a repairable system, and the optimal nonperiodic PM schedule can be determined to minimize the expected total cost per unit time. However, since the determination of such optimal PM policies may involve numerous uncertainties, which typically make the analyses difficult to perform because of the scarcity of data, a Bayesian decision model, which utilizes all available information effectively, is also proposed for determining the optimal PM strategies. A numerical example with a real failure data set is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results show that the optimal schedules derived by Bayesian approach are relatively more conservative than that for non‐Bayesian approach because of the uncertainty of the intensity function, and if the intensity function are updated using the collected data set, which indicates more severe deterioration than the prior belief, replacing the entire system instead of frequent PM activities before serious deterioration is suggested. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010 相似文献
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The “gold‐mining” decision problem is concerned with the efficient utilization of a delicate mining equipment working in a number of different mines. Richard Bellman was the first to consider this type of a problem. The solution found by Bellman for the finite‐horizon, continuous‐time version of the problem with two mines is not overly realistic since he assumed that fractional parts of the same mining equipment could be used in different mines and this fraction could change instantaneously. In this paper, we provide some extensions to this model in order to produce more operational and realistic solutions. Our first model is concerned with developing an operational policy where the equipment may be switched from one mine to the other at most once during a finite horizon. In the next extension we incorporate a cost component in the objective function and assume that the horizon length is not fixed but it is the second decision variable. Structural properties of the optimal solutions are obtained using nonlinear programming. Each model and its solution is illustrated with a numerical example. The models developed here may have potential applications in other areas including production of items requiring the same machine or choosing a sequence of activities requiring the same resource. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 186–203, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.10008 相似文献
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吴春颖 《中国人民武装警察部队学院学报》2009,25(11):91-92
对"1+X"双层课程体系下的计算机基础课程之间的关联性进行初步分析,揭示了教学目标一致性、教学内容互相渗透、人才培养逐层连续性等特点。 相似文献
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中庭防排烟系统性能化设计探析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
阐述中庭防排烟性能化设计的具体过程 ,并对防排烟系统设计的运用进行举例。 相似文献
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杨鸿台 《中国人民武装警察部队学院学报》2010,(11):5-9
利益冲突可分为一般意义的利益冲突和廉政意义的利益冲突。目前,我国常见的利益冲突类型有交换型利益冲突、权力型利益冲突、双重型利益冲突和集体型利益冲突等。构建防止利益冲突制度,其内容大体包括建立防止利益冲突组织机构、利益冲突教育制度、回避制度、利益申报制度、公务员离职制度、反腐倡廉监督检查制度、立法和公共政策制定过程中的利益协调制度等。 相似文献